Journal of Economic Development
No. 203 , July 2011, Page 02-09


Economic Impact of Climate Change on Vietnamese Crop Farming: A Ricardian Model
NGUYỄN HỮU DŨNG & NGUYỄN CHÂU THOẠI

DOI:
Abstract
The Ricardian model is used for estimating economic impacts of climate change on crop farming business in Vietnam. Analyses show that higher temperature and rainfall reduce net income of peasants. Temperature, however, has a non-linear impact on the net income (some 80%) while the impact of rainfall is unidentifiable. The scenario of climate change in Vietnam implies a prediction that when the temperature rises 1.50C – 2.90C and the rainfall rises by 3.4% - 6.6%, the Vietnamese agriculture will suffer a loss of VND2.000 – 3.700 billion. Accordingly, its GDP will fall by 0.6% - 1.3% (if it rises by 3% per year on average) by the end of the century (2100).

Keywords
Climate Change; Vietnamese Agriculture; Ricardian Model; Economic Impact.
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