This study investigates the ex-ante impact of the proposed European Union – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement on Vietnam’s footwear industry using the partial equilibrium model called Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade. From the 2015 trade and tariff database between EU and Vietnam accessed through the World Integrated Trade Solutions, the authors construct different possible scenarios under three key policies of tariff elimination, rule of origin and trade defense. The results show that the EU’s tariff removal for the Vietnam’s footwear exports would increase Vietnam’s product export value, even under the anti-dumping policy. However, the EU’s trade defense still has a negative impact on Vietnam's most important export footwear group HS Code 6403. The simulation results also indicate that there would be a remarkable shift in the export structure of the groups of products which would enjoy high tariff preference.

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Purpose The impact of export promotion programs (EPPs) on the intensive margin of exports remains somewhat uncertain. This study tackles a crucial question: does export promotion enhance firm-level intensive margin of exports? Design/methodology/approach We draw upon comprehensive empirical research conducted up to 2023. We collected 951 estimates, constructed 22 variables, captured diverse contexts and employed a meta-analytical approach to scrutinize the considerable variation in findings. Findings The overall meta-effect, after filtering out publication bias, is positive and statistically significant. Firms receiving EPP support exhibit an export intensity that is 1–9% higher than firms not participating in such programs. Assessing the mechanisms through which EPPs bolster this, we observe that support in the form of various services plays a more substantial role compared to assistance in the form of financial resources. Research limitations/implications Evaluating EPPs and their activities in terms of social welfare falls beyond the scope of this paper, which specifically focuses on the benefits of EPPs to export intensity. Subsequent research should undertake a comprehensive evaluation, considering both economic impacts and costs for accurate assessments of welfare. We also suggest that future meta-analyses explore other dimensions of firm-level performance linked to EPPs. Practical implications Publication bias distorts the impacts of EPPs, leading to an overstatement of their actual effects. Adjusting for publication bias, the practical significance of EPPs for a country’s trade intensity appears to be limited. Additionally, the provision of diverse activities and services primarily contributes to the amplification of export margins as compared to subsidies and grants. While larger firms initially benefit more from EPPs, these effects are found to be transitory. Originality/value This is the first meta-analysis scrutinizing the impact of EPPs, specifically concentrating on the firm-level intensive margin of exports.

Purpose While the existing literature lacks a holistic approach to determining credit spreads and is limited to mostly developed countries, this study investigates credit spread determinants and their cross-country connectedness in the context of four emerging economies in Asia by incorporating bonds, market risk, macroeconomic and global factors. Design/methodology/approach This study utilizes principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction and variable representation. Furthermore, we employ the dynamic conditional correlation–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to capture the cross-country credit spread connectedness between the variables. Findings The findings indicate that market volatilities are the most significant drivers of credit spreads, while global factors play a moderating role. Furthermore, the results provide compelling evidence of cross-country credit spread connectedness, with China as the primary transmitter and Malaysia as the primary receiver among the selected emerging economies. Originality/value This study addresses the limitations of previous research by extending the analysis beyond the commonly studied developed economies and focusing on emerging economies in Asia. It also employs a comprehensive approach to determine credit spread and explores cross-country credit spread connectedness in developing economies, thereby shedding light on financial risks and vulnerabilities within interconnected global financial systems.

Purpose This study investigates the causal impact of pilot free trade zones (PFTZs) on Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Design/methodology/approach The study uses the concept of ownership advantage (OA) to derive the conceptual link between PFTZs and OFDI. Using Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2022, the study employs various difference-in-difference estimators to estimate homogeneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. Findings Assuming a homogeneous treatment effect on the treated, implementing a PFTZ spurs OFDI. However, considering heterogeneity in treatment effects over cohorts and time diminishes the evidence for a positive impact. A positive causal effect on OFDI is established only for the Shanghai (China) PFTZ. Practical implications As China is a leading emerging economy with a state-driven development model, this study has significant implications for other developing and middle-income countries seeking to leverage PFTZs – or similar special economic zones – to stimulate OFDI. Originality/value This study conceptually links PFTZs to OFDI through the OA framework and explicitly models heterogeneity of effects across batches of PFTZs and over time. The latter is essential, as institutional differences across PFTZs may result in varying degrees of generation and overseas exploitation of OAs.

To maintain the Philippines’ competitive edge in the trading of agricultural products, this study identifies factors that significantly influence the Philippines’ participation in the mango global value chain. The study employs a causal research design with panel regression analysis using pooled regression, a fixed effect model and a random effects model and determines the robustness of the models using the Hausman test. The resulting fixed effect model reveals that gross domestic product, remoteness and global competitiveness have a significant positive effect on gross exports and value-added, while being land-locked and bilateral distance have a significant negative effect. Among the identified variables, remoteness has the greatest influence. The resulting model is limited to the analysis of the Philippine mango global chain’s integration in terms of gross exports and value-added contribution to the economy of the country. The underlying factors not included in the model are not given emphasis. This study identifies the factors that correctly estimate the Philippines’ mango global integration. The policy recommendations, if implemented, can guarantee strong integration of Philippine mangoes in the global chain, which will facilitate the flow of factor payments in the economy, thereby raising the standard of living of Philippine citizens and creating more social protection for the Philippine people. Previous studies have been conducted describing the Philippine global value chain integration, but these studies are limited in that they use descriptive analysis and did not identify the factor/s that will improve the mango global value chain’s integration.

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