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        | Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies |  
        
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                    Vol. 32(2)
                    , June 2025, Page 106–117
                
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        | An overshooting model of exchange rate determination and forecasting: a threshold regression approach |  
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        | Karnikaa Bhattacharyya & Kaveri Deb |  
        
            
                 
                DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-11-2024-0502 
                Abstract 
                Purpose
This study examines the impact of structural shocks and policy interventions on the India/US exchange rate post the 1991 economic reforms in India. The study aims to improve forecasting accuracy by incorporating macroeconomic and microeconomic factors into the analysis using the threshold regression model (TRM), a nonlinear approach to estimation.
Design/methodology/approach
Extending Dornbusch’s (1976) overshooting model, the study incorporates micro factors, such as investor behaviour, beliefs and preferences, alongside traditional macroeconomic variables. Additionally, it introduces a capital control variable to assess monetary policy interventions. Using quarterly data from 1996Q2 to 2019Q3, TRM identifies two distinct economic regimes, providing a comprehensive understanding of India’s exchange rate dynamics.
Findings
The study reveals that macro and micro factors have varying effects on the exchange rate across regimes, reflecting India’s different economic conditions and policies. Furthermore, the TRM-based model achieves superior out-of-sample forecasting accuracy compared to the random walk model across all forecast horizons.
Originality/value
Unlike prior studies, where not all variables were deemed significant, our analysis demonstrates that all factors significantly influence the exchange rate. The innovative use of TRM deepens understanding of exchange rate behaviour, particularly in response to structural shocks and policy shifts. By identifying distinct economic regimes, the model offers insights into targeted policy measures tailored to India’s economic conditions, a previously unexplored perspective. 
                 
                Keywords 
                Threshold regression model, Structural shocks, Forecasting, Exchange rate, Rational expectations, Overshooting model, 
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                Electricity consumption and GDP nexus in Bangladesh: a time series investigation
            
         
        2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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            Abstract
            Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics as well as causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP in Bangladesh for the period of 1971‒2014.
Design/methodology/approach
Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) “Bound Test” approach is employed for the investigation in this study.
Findings
Both short-run and long-run coefficients are providing strong evidence of having positive significant association between electricity consumption and GDP. Our long-run results remain robust to different measurements and estimators as well. The study reveals the unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita real GDP in the short run. The study result also yields strong evidence of bidirectional causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita real GDP in the long run with feedback. It is suggested that both electricity generation and conservation policy will be effective for Bangladesh economy.
Originality/value
In prior studies, lack of causality between electricity consumption and GDP is due to the omitted variables. Combined effects of public spending and trade openness on GDP and electricity consumption are also considerable. 
         
     
    
    
        
            
                Analysis of cryptocurrency’s characteristics in four perspectives
            
         
        2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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            Abstract
            Purpose – The innovation of cryptography technique and blockchain has made cryptocurrency an alternative medium of exchange due to its safety, transparency and cost effectiveness. But its main feature cannot be separated from the users who use cryptocurrency for their illegal transactions. There are several arguments related to the legality of cryptocurrency. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the nature of cryptocurrency based on characteristics of money, legal perspective, economic perspective and Sharia perspective.
Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the methodology used is descriptive with a qualitative approach. The object of this research is cryptocurrency. The data are secondary data obtained from peer-reviewed journal articles, conference papers review, working paper and Sharia consultant reports addressing the legality of cryptocurrency. The literature review analysis includes the following steps: material collection, descriptive analysis, discussion with people in Sharia competency and intuitive-subjective material evaluation.
Findings – Regarding the characteristic of money, cryptocurrency is acceptable. But in terms of the legal perspectives, cryptocurrency does not meet the criteria as currency. From the economic perspective, cryptocurrency does not fully meet the characteristic currency due to high price volatility, and from the Sharia perspective, cryptocurrency can be considered property (mal) but not as a monetary value (thamanniyah).
Research limitations/implications – The research findings are based on the journal articles, working paper and Sharia consultant report, and it may lack Sharia’s opinion. Any further discussion related to Sharia perspectives will be a great input to enrich the study.
Practical implications – This study also includes the implications related to the opportunities and the risks of cryptocurrency that can be discussed for the development of the cryptocurrency in the future.
Social implications – This study includes the implication cryptocurrency is using as nature of money and not as speculative instrument.
Originality/value – This study argued the legality of cryptocurrency in four perspectives such as the nature of money, legal, economy and Sharia perspective. 
         
     
    
    
        
            
                Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam
            
         
        2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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            Abstract
            Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach – The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches.
Findings – The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER.
Originality/value – The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably. 
         
     
    
    
        
            
                Analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment in Ghana
            
         
        2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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            Abstract
            Purpose – The factors that determine foreign direct investment (FDI) are important to policy-makers, investors, the banking industry and the public at large. FDI in Ghana has received increased attention in recent times because its relevance in the Ghanaian economy is too critical to gloss over. The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of FDI in Ghana between the period of 1990 and 2015.
Design/methodology/approach – The study employed a causal research design. The study used the Johansen’s approach to cointegration within the framework of vector autoregressive for the data analysis. Findings – The study found a cointegrating relationship between FDI and its determinants. The study found that both the long-run and short-run results found statistically significant negative effects of inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate on FDI in Ghana while gross domestic product, electricity production and telephone usage (TU) had a positive effect on FDI.
Research limitations/implications – The study found a cointegrating relationship between FDI and its determinants. The study found that both the long-run and short-run results found statistically significant negative effects of inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate on FDI in Ghana whiles gross domestic product, electricity production and TU had a positive effect on FDI.
Practical implications – This study has potential implication for boosting the economies of developing countries through its policy recommendations which if implemented can guarantee more capital inflows for the economies.
Social implications – This study has given more effective ways of attracting more FDI into countries which in effect achieve higher GDP and also higher standard of living through mechanisms and in the end creating more social protection programs for the people.
Originality/value – Although studies have been conducted to explore the determinants of FDI, some of the core macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate, telephone subscriptions, electricity production, etc., which are unstable and have longstanding effects on FDI have not been much explored to a give a clear picture of the relationships. Therefore, a study that will explore these and other macroeconomic variables to give clear picture of their relationships and suggest some of the possible ways of dealing with these variables in order to attract more FDI for the country to achieve its goal is what this paper seeks to do. 
         
     
    
    
        
            
                Explaining India’s current account deficit: a time series perspective
            
         
        2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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            Abstract
            Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India. 
Design/methodology/approach – To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger noncausality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.
Findings – The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.
Practical implications – Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD. 
Originality/value – The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models
 
         
     
    
                 
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