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Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies |
Vol. 29(2)
, June 2022, Page 91-104
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Forecasting stock price movement: new evidence from a novel hybrid deep learning model |
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Yang Zhao & Zhonglu Chen |
DOI: 10.1108/JABES-05-2021-0061
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study presents a novel hybrid deep learning model, Residual-CNN-Seq2Seq (RCSNet), to predict the trend of stock price movement. RCSNet integrates the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) long–short-term memory (LSTM) model.
Findings
The hybrid model is able to forecast both linear and non-linear time-series component of stock dataset. CNN and Seq2Seq LSTMs can be effectively combined for dynamic modeling of short- and long-term-dependent patterns in non-linear time series forecast. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline models on S&P 500 index stock dataset from January 2000 to August 2016.
Originality/value
This study develops the RCSNet hybrid model to tackle the challenge by combining both linear and non-linear models. New evidence has been obtained in predicting the movement of stock market prices.
Keywords
Stock price movement, RCSNet, ARIMA, CNN, LSTM, S&P 500 index
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Do negative events really have deteriorating effects on stock performance? A comparative study on Tesla (US) and Nio (China)
2022, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
Both investors and the stock markets are believed to behave in a perfectly rational manner, where investors focus on utility maximization and are not subjected to cognitive biases or any information processing errors. However, it has been discovered that the sentiment of the social mood has a significant impact on the stock market. This study aims to analyze how did the protest event of Tesla happened in April 2021 have a significant effect on the company's stock performance as well as its competitors, Nio, under the competitive effect.
Design/methodology/approach
The research is based on time series data collected from Tesla and Nio by employing 10 days, 15 days and 20 days anticipation and adjustment period for the event study. This study employed a text sentiment analysis to identify the polarity of the sentiment of the protest event using the Microsoft Azure machine learning tool which utilizes MPQA subjective lexicon.
Findings
The findings provide further evidence to show that a company-specific negative event has deteriorating effects on its stock performance, while having an opposite effect on its competitors.
Research limitations/implications
The paper argues that negative sentiments through social media word of mouth (SWOM) affect the stock market not just in the short run but potentially in the longer run. Such negative sentiments might create a snowball effect which causes the market to further scrutinize a company's operations and possibly lose confidence in the company.
Originality/value
This study explores how the Tesla's protest event at Shanghai Auto Show 2021 has a significant impact on Tesla's stock performance and prolonged negative impact although Tesla implemented immediate remedial actions. The remedial actions were not accepted positively and induced a wave of negative news which had a more persistent effect.
Do average higher moments predict aggregate returns in emerging stock markets?
2022, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
It has been demonstrated in the US market that expected market excess returns can be predicted using the average higher-order moments of all firms. This study aims to empirically test this theory in emerging markets.
Design/methodology/approach
Two measures of average higher moments have been used (equal-weighted and value-weighted) along with the market moments to predict subsequent aggregate excess returns using the linear as well as the quantile regression model.
Findings
The authors report that both equal-weighted skewness and kurtosis significantly predict subsequent market returns in two countries, while value-weighted average skewness and kurtosis are significant in predicting returns in four out of nine sample markets. The results for quantile regression show that the relationship between the risk variable and aggregate returns varies along the spectrum of conditional quantiles.
Originality/value
This is the first study that investigates the impact of third and fourth higher-order average realized moments on the predictability of subsequent aggregate excess returns in the MSCI Asian emerging stock markets. This study is also the first to analyze the sensitivity of future market returns over various quantiles.
Herding behaviour of Chinese A- and B-share markets
2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence of herding phenomenon, spill-over effects related to herding and whether herding is driven by fundamentals or non-fundamentals for various sub-periods and sub-samples.
Design/methodology/approach – The cross-sectional absolute deviation model is applied to China’s A- and B-share markets in combination with fundamental information.
Findings – Herding is prevalent on both A- and B-share markets. In detail, investors on A-share market herd for small and growth stock portfolios irrespective of market states while they only herd for large or value stocks in down market, therefore leading the whole herding behaviour to be pronounced in down market. Comparatively, on B-share market, herding is robust for various investment styles (small or large, value or growth) or market situations. Additionally, spill-over effects related to herding do not exist no matter from A-shares to B-shares or from B-shares to A-shares. Moreover, investors on B-share markets tend to herd as the response to non-fundamental information more frequently during financial crisis.
Originality/value – Investors on A- and B-share markets tend to herd as the response to non-fundamental information more frequently during financial crisis. Analysing the herding behaviours could be helpful in controlling the financial risk.
Electricity consumption and GDP nexus in Bangladesh: a time series investigation
2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics as well as causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP in Bangladesh for the period of 1971‒2014.
Design/methodology/approach
Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) “Bound Test” approach is employed for the investigation in this study.
Findings
Both short-run and long-run coefficients are providing strong evidence of having positive significant association between electricity consumption and GDP. Our long-run results remain robust to different measurements and estimators as well. The study reveals the unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita real GDP in the short run. The study result also yields strong evidence of bidirectional causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita real GDP in the long run with feedback. It is suggested that both electricity generation and conservation policy will be effective for Bangladesh economy.
Originality/value
In prior studies, lack of causality between electricity consumption and GDP is due to the omitted variables. Combined effects of public spending and trade openness on GDP and electricity consumption are also considerable.
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