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Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies |
Vol. 27(1)
, April 2020, Page 49-65
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Herding behaviour of Chinese A- and B-share markets |
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Xin-Ke Ju |
DOI: 10.1108/JABES-03-2019-0022
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence of herding phenomenon, spill-over effects related to herding and whether herding is driven by fundamentals or non-fundamentals for various sub-periods and sub-samples.
Design/methodology/approach – The cross-sectional absolute deviation model is applied to China’s A- and B-share markets in combination with fundamental information.
Findings – Herding is prevalent on both A- and B-share markets. In detail, investors on A-share market herd for small and growth stock portfolios irrespective of market states while they only herd for large or value stocks in down market, therefore leading the whole herding behaviour to be pronounced in down market. Comparatively, on B-share market, herding is robust for various investment styles (small or large, value or growth) or market situations. Additionally, spill-over effects related to herding do not exist no matter from A-shares to B-shares or from B-shares to A-shares. Moreover, investors on B-share markets tend to herd as the response to non-fundamental information more frequently during financial crisis.
Originality/value – Investors on A- and B-share markets tend to herd as the response to non-fundamental information more frequently during financial crisis. Analysing the herding behaviours could be helpful in controlling the financial risk.
Keywords
Herding, Chinese share market
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Forecasting stock price movement: new evidence from a novel hybrid deep learning model
2022, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
This study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study presents a novel hybrid deep learning model, Residual-CNN-Seq2Seq (RCSNet), to predict the trend of stock price movement. RCSNet integrates the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) long–short-term memory (LSTM) model.
Findings
The hybrid model is able to forecast both linear and non-linear time-series component of stock dataset. CNN and Seq2Seq LSTMs can be effectively combined for dynamic modeling of short- and long-term-dependent patterns in non-linear time series forecast. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline models on S&P 500 index stock dataset from January 2000 to August 2016.
Originality/value
This study develops the RCSNet hybrid model to tackle the challenge by combining both linear and non-linear models. New evidence has been obtained in predicting the movement of stock market prices.
Applying quantile regression to determine the effects of household characteristics on household saving rates in Vietnam
2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
"Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the determinants of the saving behaviour of Vietnamese households and to explore the possible heterogeneity of household saving propensities.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors estimate the effects of household characteristics on Vietnamese household saving rates by means of a quantile regression approach using the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey 2010 data set.
Findings – The results suggest that the way household characteristics influence saving rates is different for each quantile of the household saving rate distribution. Household characteristics tend to have stronger effects at lower quantiles. Particularly, the marginal propensity to save of households at low quantiles is higher than those at high quantiles. Analysing rural and urban households separately, the authors find evidence that household and household head characteristics have stronger significant effects for rural than for urban households. Children and elderly members should be treated as part of the household labour force, instead of household dependency, since both of them increase household saving rates.
Originality/value – This research contributes to the literature on Vietnamese household saving behaviours, especially for households living in urban areas."
Enrolment by academic discipline in higher education: differential and determinants
2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
Enrolling in an academic discipline or selecting the college major choice is a dynamic process. Very few studies examine this aspect in India. This paper makes a humble attempt to fill this gap using NSSO 71st round data on social consumption on education. The purpose of this paper is to use multinomial regression model to study the different factors that influence course choice in higher education. The different factors (given the availability of information) considered relate to ability, gender, cost of higher education, socio-economic and geographical location. The results indicate that gender polarization is apparent between humanities and engineering. The predicated probabilities bring out the dichotomy between the choice of courses and levels of living expressed through consumption expenditures in terms of professional and non-professional courses. Predicted probabilities of course choices bring in a clear distinction between south and west regions preferring engineering and other professional courses, whereas north, east and NES prefer humanities.
Design/methodology/approach
The present paper follows the same approach as that of Turner and Bowen (1999). The Multinomial regression is specified as , where P (Mi=j) denotes the probability of choosing outcome j, the particular course/major choice that categorizes different disciplines. This response variable is specified with five categories: such as medicine, engineering, other professional courses, science and humanities. The authors’ primary interest is to determine the factors governing an individual’s decision to choose a particular subject field as compared to humanities. In other words, to make the system identifiable in the MLR, humanities is treated as a reference category. The vector Xi includes the set of explanatory variables and βj refers to the corresponding coefficients for each of the outcome j. From an aggregate perspective, the distribution of course choices is an important input to the skill (technical skills) composition of future workforce. In that sense, except humanities, the rest of the courses are technical-intensive courses; hence, humanities is treated as a reference category.
Findings
The results indicate that gender polarization is apparent between humanities and engineering. The predicated probabilities bring out the dichotomy between the choice of courses and levels of living expressed through consumption expenditures in terms of professional and non-professional courses. Predicted probabilities of course choices bring in a clear distinction between south and west regions preferring engineering and other professional courses, whereas north, east and NES prefer humanities.
Research limitations/implications
Predicted probabilities of course choices bring in a clear distinction between south and west regions preferring engineering and other professional courses, whereas north, east and NES prefer humanities. This course and regional imbalance need to be worked with multi-pronged strategies of providing both access to education and employment opportunities in other states. But the predicted probabilities of medicine and science remain similar across the board. Very few research studies on the determinants of field choice in higher education prevail in India. Research studies on returns to education by field or course choices hardly exist in India. These evidences are particularly important to know which course choices can support student loans, which can be the future area of work.
Practical implications
The research evidence is particularly important to know which course choices can support student loans, which can be the future area of work, as well as how to address the gender bias in the course choices.
Social implications
The paper has social implications in terms of giving insights into the course choices of students. These findings bring in implications for practice in their ability to predict the demand for course choices and their share of demand, not only in the labor market but also across regions. India has 36 states/UTs and each state/UT has a huge population size and large geographical areas. The choice of course has state-specific influence because of nature of state economy, society, culture and inherent education systems. Further, within the states, rural and urban variation has also a serious influence on the choice of courses.
Originality/value
The present study is a value addition on three counts. First, the choice of courses includes the recent trends in the preference over market-oriented/technical courses such as medicine, engineering and other professional courses (chartered accountancy and similar courses, courses from Industrial Training Institute, recognized vocational training institute, etc.). The choice of market-oriented courses has been examined in relation to the choice of conventional subjects. Second, the socio-economic background of students plays a significant role in the choice of courses. Third, the present paper uses the latest data on Social Consumption on Education.
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