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| Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies |
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Vol. 31(5)
, December 2024, Page 365–377
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| The dynamic relationship between ASEAN+6 exchange rates and stock markets: application of the ARDL model |
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| Surachai Chancharat & Suthasinee Suwannapak |
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-01-2024-0026
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the short- and long-run relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+6 markets. In the short run, support is found for both the theory of a goods market where exchange rates influence stock returns and portfolio balance theory, where stock returns influence exchange rates.
Design/methodology/approach
The co-integration approach of linear and nonlinear augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models was applied to daily data from 2 January 2017 to 30 June 2023.
Findings
The findings provide evidence that the goods market theory is supported solely in Indonesia and Singapore, while the portfolio balance theory is supported for Australia, China, India and Malaysia.
Practical implications
Policymakers and investors should seriously consider the importance of the study findings. The results show that all ASEAN+6 countries experience a short-term interaction between the two markets. This illustrates that exchange rates and stock price movements play vital roles in other markets. Stakeholders, particularly policymakers, should be aware of this critical relationship.
Originality/value
This is the first study to dynamically examine how the ASEAN+6 framework influences currency rates and stock markets.
Keywords
ASEAN+6, Co-movement, Exchange rate, Nonlinear ARDL, Stock market
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The role of debt maturity in stock price crash risk: a comparison of developing and developed Asian economies
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the impact of debt maturity structure on stock price crash risk (SPCR) in Asian economies and the moderating effect of firm age on this relationship.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilized annual data from 432 nonfinancial firms publicly listed in six Asian countries: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Pakistan and India. The observation period covers 14 years, from 2007 to 2020. The sample was categorized into three groups: the entire sample and one group each for developing and developed Asian economies. A generalized least squares panel regression method was employed to test the research hypotheses.
Findings
The results suggest that long-term debt has a significant negative influence on SPCR in Asian economies, indicating that firms with high long-term debt experience lower future SPCR. Moreover, firm age negatively moderates this relationship, implying that older firms may experience a more pronounced reduction in SPCR due to high long-term debt. Finally, firms in developed Asian economies with high long-term debt are more effective in mitigating the risk of a significant drop in their stock prices than firms in developing Asian economies.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the literature in several ways. To the best of the researcher’s knowledge, this is the first of such efforts to investigate the relationship between debt maturity structure and crash risk in Asia. Additionally, it reveals that long-term debt influences SPCR directly and indirectly in Asia through the moderating role of firm age. Lastly, it is likely one of the first studies by a research team in Asia to compare the nonfinancial markets of developed and developing Asian countries.
Credit spread drivers and cross-country connectedness: a study of emerging economies in Asia
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
While the existing literature lacks a holistic approach to determining credit spreads and is limited to mostly developed countries, this study investigates credit spread determinants and their cross-country connectedness in the context of four emerging economies in Asia by incorporating bonds, market risk, macroeconomic and global factors.
Design/methodology/approach
This study utilizes principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction and variable representation. Furthermore, we employ the dynamic conditional correlation–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to capture the cross-country credit spread connectedness between the variables.
Findings
The findings indicate that market volatilities are the most significant drivers of credit spreads, while global factors play a moderating role. Furthermore, the results provide compelling evidence of cross-country credit spread connectedness, with China as the primary transmitter and Malaysia as the primary receiver among the selected emerging economies.
Originality/value
This study addresses the limitations of previous research by extending the analysis beyond the commonly studied developed economies and focusing on emerging economies in Asia. It also employs a comprehensive approach to determine credit spread and explores cross-country credit spread connectedness in developing economies, thereby shedding light on financial risks and vulnerabilities within interconnected global financial systems.
Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam
2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach – The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches.
Findings – The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER.
Originality/value – The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.
ESG and firm performance: do stakeholder engagement, financial constraints and religiosity matter?
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
This study revisits the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) activities and firm performance. More importantly, it tests whether this relationship is moderated by critical yet underexplored factors such as stakeholder engagement, financial constraints, and religiosity.
Design/methodology/approach
A wide range of estimation techniques, including pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, system generalized method of moments (GMM) and propensity score matching-difference-in-differences (PSM-DiD), are employed to investigate such issues in a large sample of firms from 31 countries.
Findings
ESG performance has a positive and significant impact on firm performance. While stakeholder engagement positively moderates this relationship, financial constraints and religiosity negatively moderate it. Interestingly, this positive linkage is driven by environmental and social performance rather than governance performance.
Practical implications
Firms should proactively engage in ESG initiatives and consider the intervening influences of stakeholder engagement, financial constraints and religiosity in making decisions to invest in ESG activities. Furthermore, our findings can help policymakers understand the financial consequences of ESG practices, which can be helpful in designing new policies to further promote corporate engagement in ESG practices.
Originality/value
First, our research findings help reconcile the long-standing debate about the value impact of ESG. Second, our paper investigates relatively new aspects of the ESG-firm performance relationship. Third, our study offers more insight into the ESG literature by showing that not all ESG dimensions equally impact firm performance.
The underpricing and long-term performance of Chinese IPOs listed on the Hong Kong exchange
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to inform prospective listing firms, investors and regulators of the unique drivers of Chinese initial public offering (IPO) pricing on the Hong Kong Exchange.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a hand-collected IPO dataset, we investigate whether information uncertainty or investor exuberance drives underpricing and Chinese IPOs’ performance from 2002 to 2015, including 114 state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
Findings
Contrasting with the “listing bubble” in the China domestic stock market, generated by the overoptimism of retail investors, we highlight a “placing bubble” among Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong. This is driven by institutional investors’ buoyant demand for Chinese IPO shares, particularly those of SOEs. Chinese listing firms employ discreet earnings management strategies with their working capital accounts to smooth pre-IPO earnings, which becomes apparent to the market only in the long term.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the pricing of sought-after Chinese IPOs among international investors, who face various restrictions when investing in the Chinese domestic stock market. Additionally, it is the first study to measure earnings management using hand-collected pre-IPO data in IPO underpricing studies.
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