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| Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies |
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Vol. 31(2)
, May 2024, Page 99–110
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| Trade uncertainty and investments in an emerging country: a Fourier VAR approach |
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| Mert Akyuz & Muhammed Sehid Gorus & Cihan Gunes |
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-10-2022-0266
Abstract
Purpose
This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors adopt the vector autoregression (VAR) model augmented with Fourier terms. Using this methodology, the authors obtain the empirical results of the impulse-response functions and the variance decomposition analysis.
Findings
The empirical results demonstrate that a shock to trade uncertainty has a slight negative impact on DI for up to approximately 1.5 years, whereas its impact on FDI is negative but long-lasting. Moreover, the contribution of trade uncertainty to FDI is relatively higher than to DI in the error variance decomposition for the investigated period. These empirical results can be beneficial for shaping the Turkish authorities' trade policies in the following periods.
Research limitations/implications
These findings have implications within the macroeconomic setting. Government authorities can provide tax exemptions for specified sectors and debureaucratize investment processes for both domestic and foreign entrepreneurs. Additionally, institutional quality and property rights should be protected strictly and developed gradually.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the impact of world trade uncertainty on Turkiye’s DI and FDI. Because trade uncertainty might act as fixed costs, this creates the option value of waiting and seeing the market, and firms hesitate to incur investment.
Keywords
Domestic investment, Foreign direct investment, Fourier VAR, Trade uncertainty, Turkiye
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Does export promotion enhance firm-level intensive margin of exports? Evidence from a meta-regression analysis
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
The impact of export promotion programs (EPPs) on the intensive margin of exports remains somewhat uncertain. This study tackles a crucial question: does export promotion enhance firm-level intensive margin of exports?
Design/methodology/approach
We draw upon comprehensive empirical research conducted up to 2023. We collected 951 estimates, constructed 22 variables, captured diverse contexts and employed a meta-analytical approach to scrutinize the considerable variation in findings.
Findings
The overall meta-effect, after filtering out publication bias, is positive and statistically significant. Firms receiving EPP support exhibit an export intensity that is 1–9% higher than firms not participating in such programs. Assessing the mechanisms through which EPPs bolster this, we observe that support in the form of various services plays a more substantial role compared to assistance in the form of financial resources.
Research limitations/implications
Evaluating EPPs and their activities in terms of social welfare falls beyond the scope of this paper, which specifically focuses on the benefits of EPPs to export intensity. Subsequent research should undertake a comprehensive evaluation, considering both economic impacts and costs for accurate assessments of welfare. We also suggest that future meta-analyses explore other dimensions of firm-level performance linked to EPPs.
Practical implications
Publication bias distorts the impacts of EPPs, leading to an overstatement of their actual effects. Adjusting for publication bias, the practical significance of EPPs for a country’s trade intensity appears to be limited. Additionally, the provision of diverse activities and services primarily contributes to the amplification of export margins as compared to subsidies and grants. While larger firms initially benefit more from EPPs, these effects are found to be transitory.
Originality/value
This is the first meta-analysis scrutinizing the impact of EPPs, specifically concentrating on the firm-level intensive margin of exports.
Understanding how investors respond to different social responsibility communications: an empirical analysis of Japan
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the variance in investor responses to the corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance of firms, as influenced by information sources and investor types.
Design/methodology/approach
This study applies a short-term event study and cross-sectional analysis with unique CSR datasets obtained from newspaper articles and the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.
Findings
Investor reactions are significantly shaped by their sources of information. Individual investors are found to predominantly respond to accessible news announcements, whereas institutional investors show heightened sensitivity to adverse news from both scrutinized sources. Foreign investors, mirroring institutional investors' patterns, uniquely react positively to index additions.
Research limitations/implications
Investors’ assessment of CSR activities varies due to the differing sources of information obtained; further, it is affected by the type of investor.
Practical implications
The findings guide public relation managers in strategizing CSR communication toward diverse investor types. This includes recommending targeted approaches for Japanese individual investors through newspapers and TV, exercising caution in disseminating adverse news to Japanese institutions, and promoting and justifying CSR actions to foreign investors. It underscores the need for a strategic investor relations frameworks that considers accessibility, literacy, and investors' interests.
Originality/value
This study examines the relationship between sources of information for CSR activities and investors’ responses, an area under-represented in the literature. The author uses CSR announcement data, collected from newspapers to make the results more accurate and relevant.
An overshooting model of exchange rate determination and forecasting: a threshold regression approach
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the impact of structural shocks and policy interventions on the India/US exchange rate post the 1991 economic reforms in India. The study aims to improve forecasting accuracy by incorporating macroeconomic and microeconomic factors into the analysis using the threshold regression model (TRM), a nonlinear approach to estimation.
Design/methodology/approach
Extending Dornbusch’s (1976) overshooting model, the study incorporates micro factors, such as investor behaviour, beliefs and preferences, alongside traditional macroeconomic variables. Additionally, it introduces a capital control variable to assess monetary policy interventions. Using quarterly data from 1996Q2 to 2019Q3, TRM identifies two distinct economic regimes, providing a comprehensive understanding of India’s exchange rate dynamics.
Findings
The study reveals that macro and micro factors have varying effects on the exchange rate across regimes, reflecting India’s different economic conditions and policies. Furthermore, the TRM-based model achieves superior out-of-sample forecasting accuracy compared to the random walk model across all forecast horizons.
Originality/value
Unlike prior studies, where not all variables were deemed significant, our analysis demonstrates that all factors significantly influence the exchange rate. The innovative use of TRM deepens understanding of exchange rate behaviour, particularly in response to structural shocks and policy shifts. By identifying distinct economic regimes, the model offers insights into targeted policy measures tailored to India’s economic conditions, a previously unexplored perspective.
The impact of mixed syndication between government and private venture capital on investees in Estonia
2025, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
The study compares the impacts of mixed syndication venture capital (VC) investment and private VC (PVC) investment on the transitional performance indicators of intangible assets, fixed assets, liabilities and number of employees in Estonia. It also examines the impact of mixed syndication on investees' sales and profit.
Design/methodology/approach
This study conducted panel data regression analyses based on the dataset consists of yearly data from 2006 to 2015 for more than 187,000 unlisted firms in Estonia.
Findings
Results showed that mixed syndication had a significant positive effect on the number of employees of investees but not on investees' sales and profit. PVC investment had a significant positive effect on investee sales but not on the transitional performance indicators of investees.
Originality/value
The study has two unique research contributions. First, it investigates the impact of syndicated investment on investees' transitional performance indicators in addition to performance indicators. Second, it focuses on Estonia, an emerging country that has somewhat achieved success in fostering information and communications technology startups and is one of the earliest emerging countries to implement a mixed syndication VC investment policy.
Determinants of Vietnam's rice and coffee exports: using stochastic frontier gravity model
2022, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
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Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to estimate the factors affecting Vietnam's export in rice and coffee, the two most important agricultural products, especially in exploring the role of “behind-the-border” constraints.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper applies the stochastic frontier gravity model, which models the aggregate effect of “behind-the-border” factors for Vietnam's export in rice and coffee.
Findings
The paper finds that the impact of “behind-the-border” constraints is statistically significant, suggesting that Vietnam's exports in rice and coffee may be prevented from reaching their export potential by such factors. Moreover, technical efficiency and potential export suggest that Vietnam has a lot of potential to increase its exports in rice and coffee with its major trading partners. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations group continues to be the major market of Vietnamese rice and coffee. Vietnam can also take advantage of the opportunity to export these commodities to the European Union (EU) (not including the UK), and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, especially in coffee to the EU.
Research limitations/implications
The study cannot identify specific “behind-the-border” factors due to the limitation of data availability.
Originality/value
Many existing studies suggest that export in agricultural products of Vietnam, especially in rice, is significantly affected by natural factors and “explicit beyond-the-border” constraints. They ignore the impact of “behind-the-border” constraints in Vietnam and its trading partners. My study proved the significant impact of such constraints. Therefore, Vietnam needs more policies to remove the “behind-the-border” constraints to promote export in rice and coffee.
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