In this paper we study the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic performance by investigating the impact of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables of Vietnam over the 2001–2012 period. In order to test the relationship between oil prices and the value of industrial production, we use cointegration method to consider the long-term relationship and Error Correction Model (ECM) to ponder the short-term one. The test results show that the price of oil and the value of industrial production in Vietnam are positively correlated in the long term, whereas in the short term the volatility of oil prices in the last two months will negatively affect the fluctuation in the value of the current industrial production.
The global financial crisis, once again, has ignited several intense debates over financial globalization merits, particularly for developing countries. There are probably a number of initial threshold conditions to be attained before substantial benefits may be reaped, and the risks of capital account liberalization, minimized. This article takes into account a series of empirical framework typifying these threshold conditions, estimating essential ones and accordingly proposing a few policy implications. Empirical evidence demonstrates that there exist specific thresholds in such variables with significant effects on the nexus between financial integration and growth, including those as clearly identifiable as financial depth and institutional quality. It is also shown by the findings that Vietnam’s financial development has preliminarily satisfied the necessary conditions for efficient financial integration. In contrast, the institutional quality threshold remains far distant.
This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.
The purpose of this paper is to identify key export barriers and their impact on performance of Vietnamese seafood firms with their export to the US market. By reviewing the literature and using expert opinions, five factors of the export barriers can be identified, including product, price, distribution, logistics, and promotion. A structured questionnaire is used to survey managers of 152 seafood firms, and exploratory factor analysis, used to categorize variables in five barrier dimensions. Then, the development of linear regression aims to determine which barrier has a greater negative effect on export performance. The empirical results suggest that except for promotion, the other barriers have significantly negative impact on export performance. Based on the relative importance of the different marketing barriers, seafood firms should firstly focus on quality improvements to improve their performance.
Using panel data along with the application of Pooled OLS, FEM, and REM estimates, this study conducts an investigation into the effects of a series of factors, namely state ownership, size, tangible assets, growth, return on assets (ROA),
effective tax rate, and liquidity, on capital structure of 165 HCMC-based equitized state-owned enterprises (SOEs),
categorized into three groups over the 2008–2012 period. As suggested by the findings, tangible assets, ROA, and liquidity are negatively related to leverage ratio and short-term debt ratio for the three groups of enterprises. In terms of firm size, there exists a positive correlation with leverage ratio and short-term debt ratio for Group 1 and 2 but a negative correlation with short-term debt ratio for the case of Group 3.
A fiscal sustainability model requires that budget revenues and expenditures be in balance while government budget constraints, ensured. Yet, it becomes problematic while failing to address the dynamism of the budget constraints, associated with the government’s role (i.e. extending its intervention may affect public debt and finance). On adopting approaches by Trehan and Walsh (1991) and Hakkio and Rush (1991),
which empirically tests cointegration between government revenues and its spending, this study’s aim is to assess the issue of public debt and fiscal sustainability in Vietnam. The findings, on the ground of analyzing institutional factors, demonstrate that no sustainability, as well as potential risk, is reflected by Vietnam’s public debt and fiscal policy.
In this study, which investigates the determinants of capital structure of Vietnam’s listed real estate companies, we conduct a comparative analysis of static and dynamic models, finding out several factors affecting the capital structure. By applying panel data for 47 listed companies in the real estate domain from 2008 to 2013, we find that static panel models and dynamic estimators provide significantly different results. To finally identify the capital structure determinants, we then employ the system-GMM estimation. The empirical results indicate that the pecking order theory dominates the static trade-off theory as for the Vietnam’s listed real estate companies, which are also found to partially adjust their capital structure toward the target capital structure at a low speed (α = 0.452),
implying that these have to face quite large adjustment costs.